What are my expectations? As a fledgling writer, this question is much more difficult to answer than one might think. Rationally, the odds of “breaking out” as a self-published author are pretty bad (more on that). But what about success? Really depends on my definition.

For Vegas, the odds of winning at the chairs in the picture are fairly clear, especially the longer you sit and bet. The payout of most slots is in the 90+% range in Vegas, let’s say 92%. So for every dollar you spend, you are apt to lose 8 cents (on average). It’s a pretty bad investment (tell someone you invested in a wildly volatile stock that averages a loss of 8% and see what they say). However, a few lucky souls will win big at the expense of all the rest of us losing our 8 cents a spin. Play a really long time and you will lose. Yet again, it’s kind of fun to try and be that one who wins big.

So back to writing. Here’s what I’m up against:

• According to the NEA, in 2015, only ~43% of American adults read any work of literature in a year (includes novels, short stories, poems, or plays either printed or online), down from 57% in 1982,
• ~95% of American adults own a cell phone (77% a smartphone) (Pew Research);
• Netflix subscribers watched 140 million hours/day or a billion hours/week in 2017;
•  A tough number to come by, but there are roughly 10-15 million books available on Amazon (and that number could be conservative);
• There are roughly 5-6 million ebooks (by various estimates) on Amazon;
• Average indie ebook sells 250 copies in its lifetime (and I think this stat is now too high!);
• There may even be a trend from ebooks back to print (debatable).

I could go on. For example, what are the odds of making a living as a novelist? Chance of picking up a contract from a good publishing house? Neither are very good. I hesitate to even put numbers out there, but you are probably better off on the slot machine.

The issues above in my partial challenge list seem daunting. Fewer people read (to be included in the 43% number, you only have to read one literary thing a YEAR). A great many people spend a great deal of time staring at small-screens (i.e., smartphones/tablets) or large screens (e.g., Netflix bingeing), and almost all of that time is NOT spent reading fiction. While people are not reading, the number of books available to read is growing at a ridiculous rate. And on and on…

It’s depressing…

So why do I press on in such an environment?

For starters, my first book was written as a challenge to myself. Could I write a novel from start to finish? Or even more important, could I tell a story? Most people say they will write a novel. I did. Success #1, IMO.

After that, consider this:

• The Redemption sold a little more than the average ebook, and its not done selling yet.  (I expected to sell only a few copies.)
• The Switch is a better book IMO and is doing about as well as The Redemption did at this point.
• Early on, The Redemption was selling in the top 7% of all Amazon ebooks. (Sounds great, but a huge number of those 5-6M titles are not selling at all in any specific time frame). Right now, The Redemption is only selling a few copies a month, but that’s enough to surpass 95% of Amazon ebooks (at the moment and according the the Amazon ranking algorithms).

That above is success #2…

And there is more “good news” to come. I have one more book nearly finished, and it is pretty good (IMO). Then I’m off on an adventure with someone most of my friends know. He wants help writing the book he always wanted to write – and he has great material. After that, another book-in-my-brain that wants to be written will probably be written. Potential success #3.

So if you read my stuff, stay with me… more to come…